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Draft lottery odds to remain the same (but winner gets first pick)

Feb 18, 2013, 12:12 PM EDT

Bill Daly AP

The NHL’s draft lottery odds will not be changing this year, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie. But unlike past years, the winner will receive the first overall pick.

According to McKenzie, there was talk of changing the odds, and the league may change them in the future. But for now, they’ll stay as follows:

30th place team – 25.0%
29th place team – 18.8%
28th place team – 14.2%
27th place team – 10.7%
26th place team – 8.1%
25th place team – 6.2%
24th place team – 4.7%
23rd place team – 3.6%
22nd place team – 2.7%
21st place team – 2.1%
20th place team – 1.5%
19th place team – 1.1%
18th place team – 0.8%
17th place team – 0.5%

Under the previous rules, when the lottery winner could only move up a maximum of four spots, the last-place team had a 48.2 percent chance of keeping its first overall pick. Now, with all 14 non-playoff teams in the mix, it’s 25 percent.

Related: Jones stays atop latest ISS draft list

  1. hockeywithdrawal - Feb 18, 2013 at 12:17 PM

    I’m wondering how this improves things?

    • davebabychreturns - Feb 18, 2013 at 1:04 PM

      It’s right in the article. The last place team has about half as high odds of picking first overall that they did previously.

      That means that if you are worried about teams throwing games to improve their draft positioning, the team that throws the most games now has just half the odds of successfully picking first overall that they did previously.

      • hockeywithdrawal - Feb 18, 2013 at 1:16 PM

        Yep – got it, thanks.

      • daerian - Feb 19, 2013 at 3:20 AM

        So what I’m reading is that the Blue Jackets will be picking 14th overall for the foreseeable future?

  2. soj83 - Feb 18, 2013 at 12:18 PM

    I like this, very slim chance that a bubble playoff team will get the 1st pick, but it also gives teams less incentive to tank for higher odds at the top pick. I’m sure they will adjust the percentages next season.

    • 19to77 - Feb 18, 2013 at 12:23 PM

      That’s probably what it’s about, yeah. There are at least three or four teams which at this point would have gained more this year by writing the season off and taking aim at the top five than continuing to try to salvage their disasterous seasons – Florida, Columbus, Calgary…

      • soj83 - Feb 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM

        Exactly, and the phrase “Fail for Nail” didn’t really drive up attendance in Edmonton or Columbus.

  3. lordfletcher - Feb 18, 2013 at 1:00 PM

    Odds need to be a little higher for the worst team the previous year. 25% is pretty weak for a team that most likely needs the help but I would like to see them implement a rule that would help teams from getting rewarded for having several bad seasons in a row (Pens / Oil). Maybe if you win the lottery one season and you take a (x.%) hit the following year depending on slot position.

    Example, you are the worst team in the league this year and you have a 25% chance of winning. Let’s say said team wins, and the next season they again are the worst team in the league, I would like to see their odds go from 25% – to 20% and have the left over 5% go to the other teams in the top 3 or 5… I jsut don’t like seeing teams go into a full rebuild for 5 years and then have a team set up for the next 10. It’s a slap in the face to the home town fans having to put up with a crappy team for a long time and then the rest of the leagues fans having to watch that team potentially dominate because they tanked for 3-5 years…. just a thought

    didn’t proof read. sorry for mistakes

    • davebabychreturns - Feb 18, 2013 at 1:12 PM

      Lotteries with dynamic percentages relating to previous lottery performance would be hopelessly convoluted.

      I like cutting the odds for the worst overall team but in future years I’d like to see it cut further. Either by strictly doing a weighted lottery and using that for draft order (unlike now where they draw for 1st overall and then follow by reverse order of standings position afterwards) so that if the team with 25% of the balls doesn’t get picked until 10th overall then thats their draft pick, or by simply changing the ball distribution so the percentage range changes from 0.5%-25% to something more like 2%-15%.

      Personally, I’d like to see the league go hogwild and give every team in the league a spot in the lottery – if they want they can make a rule where no team can jump more than 10 spots, but ultimately it would increase interest and it would strongly disincentivize losing if the worst team in the league could drop to 10th overall at the draft or for that matter if a playoff team could select inside the top 10.

  4. contraryguy - Feb 18, 2013 at 1:14 PM

    Columbus has 3 picks. If the draft were held today, they’d have 2 lottery picks because LA is not in playoff position. Plenty of games left so that may change, but if it doesn’t (or if NYR fades late), the Jackets get a few more dice to roll.

    • davebabychreturns - Feb 18, 2013 at 1:37 PM

      I don’t know what would be more entertaining – the Kings missing the playoffs, or the Blue Jackets winning the lottery with their pick and drafting first and second overall.

      That being said, the Kings aren’t going to miss the postseason and the BJs are going to end up with one very high and two very low first rounders.

      • lordfletcher - Feb 18, 2013 at 2:16 PM

        “That being said, the Kings aren’t going to miss the postseason”

        says who?

        anything is possible amigo, especially after winning the cup. Players are banged up and some don’t have the motivation immediately after a winning season. They could just as easily make the playoffs as they can miss em.

      • zetaone - Feb 18, 2013 at 2:18 PM

        What leads you to believe the Kings are a lock to make the playoffs? Is it how incredibly well Quick has been playing? Or how crazy good the Kings’ offense has been thus far?

        /sarcasm

      • davebabychreturns - Feb 18, 2013 at 4:28 PM

        Meh, the Kings are a good team. Weird things can happen over a short season but I don’t think they flounder long enough to finish 9th or worst – right now they are four points back of 8th with two fewer games played than the teams tied at that spot. Meaning if they won their games at hand they’d be more or less in a playoff spot right now.

        That being said I don’t like the Kings (and I’ve never thought Quick was as good as the accolades he’s received) and I’d be pretty pleased to see them stumble their way to a losing season.

        But they are an excellent defensive team, I believe their offense could struggle nearly this badly to produce all year but I don’t really believe they’ll struggle to contain other teams for the duration.

      • daerian - Feb 19, 2013 at 3:23 AM

        Jackets have never won the draft lotto, despite being the worst team in the NHL several times. They make an annual show of ‘losing’ the draft, as well (Remember, Nasher was taken number one, but they traded up for him.).

  5. east96st - Feb 18, 2013 at 3:13 PM

    I think the Kings are a lock for the playoffs simply because the Jackets are cursed and that kind of gift never falls into their lap.

    • lordfletcher - Feb 18, 2013 at 3:44 PM

      if the Blue Jackets were cursed, they would still have Howson. I see the next 5-7 years after 2014-2015 being very good days for Columbus

      • east96st - Feb 18, 2013 at 4:29 PM

        I hope you’re right, but as long as McConnell owns the team and, more importantly, Priest controls the purse strings, I still see the same old Jackets. Remember this is the team that won’t allow you to have a lid for your kid’s soda or for your coffee because you can “throw” lids onto the ice and that’s a danger to the players. Of course, if you accidentally spill hot coffee on yourself, your kid, or another fan, well, that’s your/their problem. But, you CAN absolutely bring a bottle or a can to your seat because, apparently, no one in the CBJ organization thinks those can be thrown to the ice or directly at a player.

      • daerian - Feb 19, 2013 at 3:24 AM

        Link or it didn’t happen. I was a CBJ season ticket holder the last several years (until I moved to Texas), and I had coffee, lid included, at my seat regularly. Tim Hortons-style.

  6. uncledick - Feb 18, 2013 at 4:13 PM

    Ironic how the two major sports (NFL, MLB) who trump the other 2 (NHL, NBA) in revenue, attendance etc. dont use a lottery… It is an unfair system which leaves room for corruption.

  7. uncledick - Feb 18, 2013 at 4:15 PM

    Because no one will ever convince me 2007 wasnt fixed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NHL_Entry_Draft

  8. ussportsfanuk - Feb 18, 2013 at 6:39 PM

    Does that mean that this year the Edmonton Oilers may not get the first pick? Or, as they have actually improved, does this mean they now have more chance of getting the first pick again?

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