Aug 20, 2014, 3:59 PM EST
If your favorite team is hoping to tank next season to land Connor McDavid in the 2015 NHL Draft, just know their chances of landing the top pick just got worse.
The NHL announced changes to the NHL Draft Lottery that will see the odds of landing the top pick change slightly in 2015 and the lottery process change even more in 2016.
The league says the odds will be adjusted to “more appropriately reflect the current state of competitive balance in the League.” That means if your team has the worst record next season, their chances of landing the No. 1 pick in the lottery go from 25 percent to 20. That in itself is a 20 percent drop in chances to earn the top pick.
As for how the percentages change for all picks, here’s a handy chart via NHL.com:
As you can see, finishing with one of the three worst records no longer pays off as well in the lottery. Meanwhile, the other 11 non-playoff teams all see their chances of landing the No. 1 pick get a boost.
The team most obviously affected by these changes are the Buffalo Sabres. They’re expected to be one of, if not the, worst teams in the league and may stand the best chance of landing McDavid. Now if they wind up with the worst record, their chances of winning the lottery have gotten worse.
Then again, if the Sabres want to look on the bright side of things, if the New York Islanders and/or St. Louis Blues miss the playoffs, their chances of stealing the top pick have improved slightly since they own both of their first-round picks.
Keep those odds in mind because when it’s time for the 2016 Draft Lottery, there will be a drawing for each of the top three picks, not just the first overall selection. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s how the NBA handles their draft lottery.
That means if you have the worst record in the league then, you’re not guaranteed either the first or second overall pick and that team could pick as low as fourth overall.
If teams are going to tank to land McDavid or Jack Eichel, they might find out doing so may not work out the way they intended while burning a season trying not to win too much.
Mar 3, 2015, 10:41 AM EST
The two squads will play again on Sunday.
Mar 3, 2015, 10:35 AM EST
Plenty of roster spots to be filled in Buffalo after yesterday’s deadline.
Mar 3, 2015, 9:57 AM EST
Is this a sign of what they should expect to face as free agents?
Mar 3, 2015, 9:11 AM EST
This was a key win for San Jose.
Mar 3, 2015, 8:56 AM EST
Tampa Bay needs to get hot to challenge the Atlantic Division-leading Montreal Canadiens.
Mar 3, 2015, 8:00 AM EST
Tuesday’s collection of links.
Mar 2, 2015, 11:23 PM EST
Kimmo Timonen and Antoine Vermette made their debuts.
Mar 2, 2015, 10:49 PM EST
San Jose beat Montreal 4-0 on Monday.
Mar 2, 2015, 9:56 PM EST
An impressive effort for a team going all-in.
Mar 2, 2015, 9:03 PM EST
Then again, Taylor Beck’s helper might have been better.
Mar 2, 2015, 8:14 PM EST
He’ll pair with Sergei Gonchar to start.
Mar 2, 2015, 7:31 PM EST
Adding versatility in a tough West.
Mar 2, 2015, 6:49 PM EST
Quite a rebound from a scary lacerated arm.
Mar 2, 2015, 5:59 PM EST
“We were looking to upgrade, add more of a veteran presence.”
Mar 2, 2015, 5:49 PM EST
“It’s just hard to get a deal done, and you see the prices are so high.”
Mar 2, 2015, 5:25 PM EST
Was it just a sellers’ market?
Mar 2, 2015, 5:10 PM EST
He gets a no-trade clause in the first year of the deal.
Mar 2, 2015, 5:09 PM EST
“Devastating” news for the Calgary Flames.
Mar 2, 2015, 4:47 PM EST
He was scheduled to become a restricted free agent after this season.
Mar 2, 2015, 4:00 PM EST
All the latest leading up to 3 p.m. ET…
- Rutherford: ‘Our guys felt very strongly about reacquiring’ Lovejoy 45
- Winners and losers of the 2015 trade deadline 69
- Giordano to have surgery, is ‘done for the season’ 20
- PHT’s 2015 NHL Trade Deadline Tracker 36
- Ducks get their veteran d-man, adding Wisniewski from Columbus 16
- Lovejoy returns to Pittsburgh for Despres 52
- Wild get Stewart as Buffalo-to-Minnesota pipeline continues 54
- Jordan Leopold’s daughter may have orchestrated the Minnesota trade 17
- Wings get Zidlicky from Devils 73
- Can the Wings and Leafs work out a deal for Phaneuf? 49
- Wild beat Avs, dying seconds fight set stage for rematch (171)
- Petrovic: Chicago will ‘probably seek revenge’ for Kane injury tonight (82)
- Trade: Blackhawks acquire Vermette from Arizona for Dahlbeck, first rounder (74)
- Wings get Zidlicky from Devils (73)
- Report: Alex Petrovic avoids discipline after injuring Patrick Kane (69)