Oct 1, 2013, 1:36 PM EDT
The Toronto Maple Leafs have given Phil Kessel an eight-year, $64 million extension, tying the 25-year-old to the club through the 2021-22 season. Since we just wrote a post about the difficulty making predictions, we won’t say for sure whether this will turn out well, or horribly, for the Leafs. Instead, let’s do this:
Two reasons this was a good move by the Leafs
1. Kessel is one of the premier snipers in the NHL. There are not many players still in their 20s with four 30-goal seasons on their resumes. When a team has one of those players, it really doesn’t want to let him walk away in free agency, or even as a trade-deadline rental. An $8 million cap hit is high, but it’s not insane. No question he would’ve received that if he’d hit the market this summer. Not to mention, the cap is expected to go up, some think dramatically, in the next few years.
2. There aren’t many top unrestricted free agents hitting the open market anymore. Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf didn’t, and the Ducks are hardly a big-money team like the Leafs. Not only can pending UFAs sign eight-year extensions with their current teams, as opposed to just seven years with all others, a lot of the time players are married and have started families at that point in their careers. Moving to a whole new city isn’t easy, even for a whole whack of money. So in the Leafs’ case, if they’d lost Kessel, what would they have done to replace his scoring? Maybe they’d have been able to sign a guy like Thomas Vanek, but they wouldn’t have been the only suitors. And besides, Vanek’s four years older than Kessel.
Two reasons this was a bad move by the Leafs
1. Kessel is a winger, and the evidence says that Cup champs are built with goalies, defensemen, and centers. The more money a team spends on its wingers, the less it has for those three key areas. Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk — all centers, all have won rings. Alex Ovechkin — winger, no ring.
2. Kessel’s far from old, but some research suggests that 25 is the peak age for NHL scorers. For a player that relies on his speed so much to get into position to shoot, this may be particularly concerning for the Leafs. Not to keep picking on Ovechkin (a.k.a. the reigning Hart Trophy recipient), but there are a lot of similarities between the two players, and Ovechkin’s best goal-scoring seasons came before he turned 25.
Aug 29, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
This will be his first full season as a pro.
Aug 29, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
They’ll be paying him like one.
Aug 29, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
“We did lose a great man.”
Aug 29, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
The Blue Jackets have to hope for better health this season.
Aug 29, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Looking to bounce back after an injury-ravaged campaign.
Aug 28, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
You know, the one injured on “that” slash from P.K. Subban.
Aug 28, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Which is great news for Dallas.
Aug 28, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
The club’s top pick at this year’s draft.
Aug 28, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Former Avs and Habs goalie spent all of last year in the AHL.
Aug 28, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
Yet another NHL club hiring a fancy stats guy.
Aug 28, 2015, 3:55 PM EDT
Scored a career-high 19 goals and 40 points last year.
Aug 28, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Former Panthers, Devils head coach takes over a team that “hit a little bit of a rut.”
Aug 28, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
After an up-and-down rookie year, he’s looking to solidify his spot.
Aug 28, 2015, 12:19 PM EDT
Legendary Isles coach had been battling Parkinson’s and dementia.
Aug 28, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Bit of an issue last season, if you’ll recall.
Aug 28, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
From little-used backup to clear-cut No. 1.
Aug 28, 2015, 10:03 AM EDT
It all comes down to goaltending.
Aug 28, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Their playoff streak ended after 10 straight appearances.
Aug 28, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Friday’s collection of links.
Aug 27, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
The defenseman had 34 points in 66 OHL games last season.
- Hall of Famer Al Arbour passes away 17
- Poll: Who will be San Jose’s next captain? 24
- It’s San Jose Sharks Day at PHT 25
- Mike Richards charged with possession of controlled substance 94
- Gio won’t go: Flames extend Giordano for six years, $40.5M 13
- Pens’ plan for now: Crosby starts as Kessel’s center 25
- O, Dear: Russia fined $85K for skipping Canadian anthem 28
- Kings ink Ehrhoff to a one-year, $1.5 million deal 27
- Quebec City, Vegas advance to final phase of NHL expansion process 50
- Here’s the full NHL 2015 preseason schedule, starting Sept. 20 5