Aug 2, 2013, 4:00 PM EST
Sabres fans certainly know enough about bad luck and injuries, but how could things stack up this season if you evened out the bad breaks and eliminated ? Not very well says author and statistical analyst Rob Vollman.
He’s the author of “Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract” wherein he digs into numbers a little deeper than just goals, saves, and penalty minutes. In there he breaks down a luck-neutral way of analyzing teams where luck, injuries, roster changes, and overtime/shootouts are all factored in or out to account for how a team should do.
For the 2013-14 season he projects the Sabres to be a 72 point team, good for last place in the Eastern Conference and only one point better than Calgary overall.
That’s as bleak as an outlook can get but if there’s a way to take solace in that, they’ll have company at the bottom. Vollman projects divisional rivals Toronto to be just a point better than the Sabres. Hey, maybe Thomas Vanek scores 60 this season, Cody Hodgson turns into Sidney Crosby and Ryan Miller pretends it’s 2010 all over again and things go differently. That’s why they play the games at least.
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