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Draft lottery odds are set, Panthers have best shot at top pick

Apr 28, 2013, 10:44 AM EDT

Jonathan Huberdeau AP

For the first time in league history, the NHL Draft Lottery will give all non-playoff teams a shot at the No. 1 pick and everyone’s fate lies in how the ping pong balls decide to bounce. Everyone from the league’s worst team (Florida) to the last team out of the playoffs (Columbus) will have a chance to climb into the driver’s seat.

How do the odds of landing the No. 1 pick shake out for each team? Here’s the rundown:

Florida Panthers – 25.0%
Colorado Avalanche – 18.8%
Tampa Bay Lightning – 14.2%
Nashville Predators – 10.7%
Carolina Hurricanes – 8.1%
Calgary Flames – 6.2%
Edmonton Oilers – 4.7%
Buffalo Sabres – 3.6%
New Jersey Devils – 2.7%
Dallas Stars – 2.1%
Philadelphia Flyers – 1.5%
Phoenix Coyotes – 1.1%
Winnipeg Jets – 0.8%
Columbus Blue Jackets – 0.5%

Teams with poor odds have won the lottery in the past only to be prevented from grabbing the top pick thanks to the old rules. Think back to 2011 when the New Jersey Devils vaulted from 8th to 4th where they grabbed defenseman Adam Larsson.

Should someone other than Florida win the lottery, they’ll move to the top and everyone else will slide back by a pick. Advanced congrats to the Panthers on being No. 1 or No. 2.

This year’s top choice is likely to be defenseman Seth Jones but others like forwards Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, and Aleksander Barkov present excellent options for those teams to improve their future.

You can watch the lottery live on NBCSN tomorrow night at 8 p.m. ET.

  1. jimw81 - Apr 28, 2013 at 11:17 AM

    Philadelphia Flyers – 1.5%

    They are definitely trading that pick for someone.

  2. isithockeyseasonyet - Apr 28, 2013 at 11:24 AM

    Is seth jones that good or what? Like, what would it take w the 11th pick to move to get seth jones? Laughton and their first round?

    • chanceoffleury1 - Apr 28, 2013 at 12:25 PM

      Well the Panthers, Lightning, Canes, Avs, Sabres, Oilers, and Flames all REALLLLLLLY need defense bad. So honestly they’d probably have to overpay a lot to get him. And the other team definitely would want some defense in return since they need it, like, yesterday. Nashville doesn’t really need defense as bad as the others, but he could play alongside Weber and become a phenom. Not a bad guy to be your mentor. I just can’t see any of the teams above the Flyers letting him go unless the Flyers overpaid.

    • ray2013 - Apr 29, 2013 at 1:17 AM

      I was listening to a draft show on the radio and they said he has the potential to be the next Chris Pronger. If your comparable is a future HOF’er, then he’s pretty good.

  3. mclovinhockey - Apr 28, 2013 at 11:30 AM

    After the lotto laughten and this first might just do it.

    Seeing as how the flyers young D have played A Lot better than the vets, I could see Philly moving guys like Coburn and Mez this offseason and try to bring in a guy like Buff or Yandel rather then trading for jones.

    • isithockeyseasonyet - Apr 28, 2013 at 11:57 AM

      I think they need to keep coburn, I think he’s a nice piece who had a bad season but certainly not a top defenseman like the flyers asked him to be this year…and Meszaros, who’s taking on a contract for a guy that basically doesn’t play…ever? I hope you’re right, I just can’t see it happening

      • laxman1944 - Apr 28, 2013 at 1:20 PM

        Coby has to go…..too soft and panics when pressured with the puck in his own zone

    • eigglesnosuperbowls - Apr 28, 2013 at 12:24 PM

      Shut up

      • mclovinhockey - Apr 28, 2013 at 8:04 PM

        no thanks.

    • valoisvipers - Apr 28, 2013 at 3:06 PM

      If you want Big Buff, have I got a bridge and a Luongo for you.

      • tangentmechanic - Apr 28, 2013 at 6:36 PM

        I would have a hernia if I ever saw Byfuglien in a Flyers sweater.

      • mclovinhockey - Apr 28, 2013 at 8:06 PM

        Philly needs a big D who can put up points… they also need to get rid of some of this D so they can bring in the young guns.

        Buff is high risk, high reward but he is also highly affordable.

  4. letsgopens8771 - Apr 28, 2013 at 11:45 AM

    Hey, It’s gonna be somebody other than Edmonton this year! WOW.

    • isithockeyseasonyet - Apr 28, 2013 at 12:00 PM

      What’s funny is that’s what everyone said about the penguins for 5 years when they almost had to move their franchise out of pittsburgh before the NHL stepped in and saved them, it’s easy to talk trash from the top but don’t forget, it’s a cyclical league, what goes around eventually comes around

      • chanceoffleury1 - Apr 28, 2013 at 12:34 PM


        In case you haven’t noticed, half the franchises in the league don’t even make a profit, so if the Pens were gonna get moved in 2004-2007 because they weren’t making money then half the franchises in the current NHL would be looking for new places to call home.

      • flyers22 - Apr 28, 2013 at 1:02 PM

        Noooo it was lack of fan support that place was a ghost town for quite a few years they didn’t even have enough money to pay Mario but luckily he turned them around and kept the team in Pitt I would have hated to see them move I love the rivalry

      • pens5829 - Apr 28, 2013 at 2:39 PM

        Flyers22. Get a clue buddy. You have no idea what you’re talking about and sound stoopid with this post.

        BTW. Who’s the Flyers next opponent?

      • flyers22 - Apr 28, 2013 at 3:59 PM

        Really pens5829? I know nothing and sound stupid? Sooo please tell me how it was that the penguins filed for bankruptcy 2 times and Mario had a law suit against the team because they owed him 33 million dollars? Just google it buddy u can find more about it then since u only became a fan when Crosby came along

      • pens5829 - Apr 28, 2013 at 4:45 PM

        If you say it’s on Google, then it must be true? Worry about Flyers next opponent and not the Pens. Oh that’s right. Flyers next game is in October.

      • flyers22 - Apr 28, 2013 at 5:34 PM

        When did I say I was worrying about the pens next opponent? And yes it is true because It was all over tv and its still on the Internet if you followed hockey you would know it was a major headline at the time

      • pens5829 - Apr 28, 2013 at 7:33 PM

        Here’s your fair-weather fans chump.

    • hockeyflow33 - Apr 28, 2013 at 5:24 PM

      I hope they win the pick again just so that they pick another forward instead of Jones

  5. pavelfitzgerald - Apr 28, 2013 at 11:51 AM

    It’s premature to say that Jones is “likely” to be the top pick. It’ll depend on the team & their needs as true #1 Centers don’t grow on trees. It’s why you often have teams overpay Centres to try to fill that need.
    Jones is talented but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a slam dunk for 1st overall.

  6. chrisvegas - Apr 28, 2013 at 4:51 PM

    These odds suck. It is annoying to Watch the Flyers win 6 of their last 7 games with the only reward being a decreased chance at winning the lotto and a lower draft pick. In the mean time other teams are tanking it to get the coveted 1st overall pick. Teams like Columbus, Phx, Philly, and the Jets should have a better chance at the Lotto as those teams actually didn’t stop playing until the end. Florida wasn’t even trying to win games and they will probably get that pick. To me the Lotto hasn’t solved the problems of team tanking it at the end of the year. I think every team should have an equal chance to win the lotto, then it truly won’t matter.

    • tcclark - Apr 28, 2013 at 9:29 PM

      I don’t know how fair that is, but it would certainly be a lot more interesting. The NHL has such parity and the NHL draft is a little easier to predict the prospects than other sports that it may not even matter that much. It would be cool though to see a team that just missed the playoffs get a superstar rather than a team that’s so bad he get’s wasted for a couple of years. The draft would matter even more than it already does. A team could become championship caliber because of a pick instead of maybe a playoff team.

      of course it would never happen, but it’s a fun idea

  7. icelovinbrotha215 - Apr 28, 2013 at 5:23 PM

    1.5%…so you’re saying there’s a chance?

  8. thehighcountrybear - Apr 28, 2013 at 7:03 PM

    To be equitable, all thirty teams should be in the lottery, complete with relative odds…

    While necessary, the draft itself promotes weak franchises and failing business entities…a systemized fiddle of game results seems to occur from the two thirds mark of every season onward. The draft lottery only emphasizes that fact by isolating the fourteen worst…

    Look how many teams were in the hunt, then magically fell off form when dangerously close to a playoff spot?

  9. phillyphannn83 - Apr 28, 2013 at 9:00 PM

    Coldest April in years = low baseball attendance no matter how good or bad the team is, yet were still top 10 in the MLB. But yeah, were nothing but fair-weather fans. You can ALWAYS trust the intelligence that comes from Pittsburgh.

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