Apr 14, 2013, 12:51 PM EDT
There’s been little doubt to how much Nazem Kadri has helped the Toronto Maple Leafs this year. He’s first on the team in goals and just one point behind Phil Kessel for the team lead there. For every goal scorer, however, there’s a little bit of luck that goes into it as well.
Kadri’s scoring has been so prolific this year he’s netting goals on a high percentage of his shots. After last night’s big win over Montreal, he’s scoring on 18.5 percent of his shots. James Mirtle of The Globe And Mail took a look at just how lucky he’s been and why his luck will eventually start going away.
“It’s unreasonable to expect this to continue,” said Eric Tulsky, a Harvard graduate whose company, TZ Quantitative Analytics, provides analysis for multiple NHL teams. “Unless we believe Kadri is by far the best player of this era, we have to assume that in the long run he won’t see as many shots go in and his point scoring rate will drop sharply – perhaps by 40 to 50 per cent.”
The Leafs are looking at being a playoff team this year and Kadri is going to be counted on to help produce in a big way there. If his numbers start to level out by then, fans aren’t going to take kindly to that twist in statistics.
- Bruins can’t hold Ducks off, suffer sixth loss in a row 18
- Ticket punched: Rangers become first team to clinch 2015 playoff berth 5
- Coyotes ‘win’ against Sabres in OT 25
- Marchand: If Bruins miss playoffs, ‘this is going to be a much different group next year’ 18
- Is Lecavalier offering to retire early to facilitate trade out of Philly? 28
- Hextall insists he’s ‘on the same page’ with Snider 15
- Krejci ‘probable’ to return versus Ducks 10
- Flyers announce Simmonds, MacDonald done for the season with injuries 18
- Video: Flyers crush Blackhawks, Voracek joins league lead in points 11
- Report: Draft Lottery to be held on Apr. 18 14
- Dreger: ‘In Kessel’s case, I firmly believe he’s going to be traded’ (73)
- Red Wings beat Blues in OT, but should winning goal count? (56)
- Tank-worthy? Connor McDavid finishes OHL season with 120 points in 47 games (56)
- Report: No fine or suspension for Tyler Toffoli’s hit on Alex Burrows (51)
- Dubnyk leads Wild past Isles in SO, earns 10th straight road win (44)