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Nazem Kadri is a very lucky guy

Apr 14, 2013, 12:51 PM EDT

Nazem Kadri Getty Images

There’s been little doubt to how much Nazem Kadri has helped the Toronto Maple Leafs this year. He’s first on the team in goals and just one point behind Phil Kessel for the team lead there. For every goal scorer, however, there’s a little bit of luck that goes into it as well.

Kadri’s scoring has been so prolific this year he’s netting goals on a high percentage of his shots. After last night’s big win over Montreal, he’s scoring on 18.5 percent of his shots. James Mirtle of The Globe And Mail took a look at just how lucky he’s been and why his luck will eventually start going away.

“It’s unreasonable to expect this to continue,” said Eric Tulsky, a Harvard graduate whose company, TZ Quantitative Analytics, provides analysis for multiple NHL teams. “Unless we believe Kadri is by far the best player of this era, we have to assume that in the long run he won’t see as many shots go in and his point scoring rate will drop sharply – perhaps by 40 to 50 per cent.”

The Leafs are looking at being a playoff team this year and Kadri is going to be counted on to help produce in a big way there. If his numbers start to level out by then, fans aren’t going to take kindly to that twist in statistics.

  1. cnote444 - Apr 14, 2013 at 1:32 PM

    No reason to worry Leaf fans. They said the same thing about Drew Stafford after the year he scored 30 goals. Yet he still scores a goal almost every month.

  2. esracerx46 - Apr 14, 2013 at 1:49 PM

    Regression to the mean. Its not a new concept.

  3. withseidelinn - Apr 14, 2013 at 2:12 PM

    So basically this is saying that players will go through slumps. How informative.

  4. buddysguys - Apr 14, 2013 at 2:59 PM

    Marcus foligno had a real high percentage too…..

  5. sunderlanding - Apr 14, 2013 at 3:18 PM

    This could very well be true, but of the top 40 scorers in the league Kadri has the least amount of ice time. It’s resonable to assume that as his percentage decreases he’ll see more ice time as he works his way up the Leafs depth chart, so that the lack of pecentage will be matched by an increase in chances and he’ll get more or less the same amount of points.

    • anthonykornheiser - Apr 14, 2013 at 5:31 PM

      true, as his production drops hell be rewarded with more ice time and climbing up the depth charts.

      • sunderlanding - Apr 14, 2013 at 5:49 PM

        I never meant as his production drops he’ll be rewarded with more ice time. They will happen more or less at the same time. Clearly he deserves more ice time, so naturally sometime soon he’ll start to get it, and as his percentage levels out his increase in ice time should increase his chances of getting points, thus evening out.

    • ethanmacleod1685 - Apr 14, 2013 at 7:23 PM

      Not if he doesn’t improve his defensive game and positioning, which is basically why he hasn’t made the team for the last few years.

      • box080809 - Apr 16, 2013 at 1:32 AM

        Have you watched a single game this season? Did you watch any of the previous games he played in a Leaf uniform? His defensive game is considerably better than it was either of the past two seasons. He plays a pretty good two way game for a player his age with his offensive talents. He’s not perfect but look at his +/- compared to most of the other players putting up comparable points. He certainly stacks up as better than average compared to his peers.

  6. orangandblack - Apr 14, 2013 at 4:47 PM

    Terrorist

  7. jaybird22seven - Apr 15, 2013 at 9:34 AM

    Please ban orangeandblack !!!!
    His comment is disgraceful.

  8. kingsforever - Apr 15, 2013 at 9:53 AM

    “yeah so this herp-a-derp company has predicted, with tons of research and grant money, that players can get hot and cold. Don’t build too many monuments of me colleagues.”

    Thanks, man

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