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On the chances of Shea Weber getting an offer sheet

Jul 18, 2012, 11:36 AM EST

Nashville Predators v Phoenix Coyotes Getty Images

We’re only going to comment on one of Elliotte Friedman’s 30 44 thoughts, because you should just go read the column yourself.

The thought we chose relates to Shea Weber and the possibility of Nashville’s captain receiving an offer sheet:

Been a lot written about a one-year, huge-money offer sheet. Think a couple of good teams have at least thought about it. Look, if you really believe getting Weber is going to mean giving up four 27th picks, he’s worth it. Now, I know the counter: what if he leaves you after just one year? This is the dicey part: you almost need a nudge-nudge, wink-wink “understanding” that he’s going to stay. And, if Gary Bettman finds out, he’s going to CRUSH the team that does it. Google “David Stern Joe Smith Timberwolves.”

To save you a Google search, in 2000, Stern took away five first-round picks from the T-Wolves (and fined them $3.5 million) after Minnesota GM Kevin McHale secretly promised Smith a big contract in the future if he signed for a song in the present (because McHale needed the cap space immediately).

And that’s the problem with offer-sheeting Weber. If it’s for one year, how do you know he’ll stay longer than that (without meeting his agent at 2 a.m. in an underground parking garage)? And if it’s a multi-year offer, Weber probably doesn’t sign because he knows the Preds will match.

We suppose there’s a chance the offer is so massive the Preds let him walk and take the four first-round picks, but ownership and GM David Poile would get absolutely ripped by the fans for that. Not only have the Preds said they’ll match, failing to get any NHL-ready talent in return could mean a real tough 2012-13 season in Nashville, and likely beyond.

  1. jacketsfan7 - Jul 18, 2012 at 11:53 AM

    Wings , pens , and any other team in the NHL , this is the time where you say he’s staying in Nashville

    • napoleonblownapart6887 - Jul 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

      Huh?

    • ucaneverscorenoughgoals - Jul 18, 2012 at 12:28 PM

      Because any time we say a player is leaving….he stays?…lol

  2. lordfletcher - Jul 18, 2012 at 12:46 PM

    I can’t imagine he get’s that far into the process but if Weber does, teams like Vancouver / Pittsburgh / PHILLY / Chicago (anyteam usually drafting in the bottom 8 of the draft) wouldn’t mind tossing an offer sheet at Poile. 4 late first rounders is a good deal for the club making the sheet, Poile would be a fool to not have Shea signed before the season starts, or traded. I am hoping Weber stays in Nashville but who knows what will happen… Weber could bring in a premium via trade, 2 quality prospects / top 6 forward / and a decent top 4 defenceman. Weber is a franchise player and teams like Philly would be willing to play ball!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    -wild fan

    • jrmehle - Jul 19, 2012 at 1:14 AM

      Bingo fellow Wild fan.

  3. flyersgoalscoredby88 - Jul 18, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    I don’t get why it would be illegal for a team to ask Weber the chances he’ll resign next year…

    He’s a restricted free agent, so teams are clearly allowed to negotiate with him…you’re not allowed to ask “Hey, would you stay here past this year if we only offer you a one year offer sheet?

    • Jason Brough - Jul 18, 2012 at 12:51 PM

      They’re not allowed to negotiate. Just make an offer.
      (Clarification below.)

    • drunkbro - Jul 18, 2012 at 12:53 PM

      its in reference to a one year deal that isnt cap friendly and nashville is unable to match, then have a contract that is cap friendly for the long term after that, which nashville might be able to match

      • flyersgoalscoredby88 - Jul 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

        Yea, I get the concept, but essentially the “offering” team is saying “We have the 14M in cap space to give you right now, and then we’ll sign you long term with a lower cap hit because you already got the $14M in what amounts to a signing bonus.” rather than the player and team colluding against Nashville.

        Jason, what do you mean “not allowed to negotiate, just make an offer.” Would Weber’s agent not be allowed to say “That’s not enough, come back with a better offer?” or “We’d like 6 years instead of 5.” etc?

  4. Jason Brough - Jul 18, 2012 at 2:33 PM

    Sorry, I meant the negotiation can’t include an off-the-record clause that says, “I’ll sign with your team once the year is up.”
    This is important, because the Preds might only refuse to match if Weber signs a one-year (not multi-year) offer sheet, as they wouldn’t be able to trade him if they do. So the risk for the Preds if they match a one-year offer sheet is that they only keep him for a year and then lose him for free as a UFA, a la Ryan Suter.
    In reality, any team that signs him to a one-year offer sheet will probably have a good idea whether they’ll be able to re-sign him. There’s just always the chance he changes his mind. (Or, you leave a paper trail and Mr. B finds out.)

  5. ikillchicken - Jul 18, 2012 at 3:01 PM

    I really can’t see why he’d sign an offer sheet. He’s obviously going to sign a long term deal this year or next. Better it be this year before the new CBA comes in and potentially limits his options. So why give Nashville the chance to match an offer sheet (even a 1 year one) and draw out the process? If he can’t agree on a long term deal this year with Nashville (for the second year in a row) then it’s never gonna happen. They’d be better off just trading him to a team that will give him that deal. Except, nobody is going to give much up for him (or at least not as much as he’s worth) if they know he’s not going to sign with them. So really, Weber essentially controls where he’ll be traded to. Hence, simply forcing a trade is actually better for him than signing an offer sheet since either way he still controls where he’ll go but with a trade can guarantee he gets his long term deal this year. It’s also better for Nashville obviously.

    • jrmehle - Jul 19, 2012 at 1:13 AM

      Well it happened. http://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/225814498567663616

      • ikillchicken - Jul 19, 2012 at 3:14 AM

        I was talking about a 1 year offer sheet. Like I said, he obviously wants to cash in with a long term deal this year instead of waiting till next year and whatever the new CBA brings.

  6. pariseinminnesotabichez - Jul 19, 2012 at 1:23 AM

    So hows Suter? Oh wait sorry hes in MINNESOTA!!!!!

  7. 1943mrmojorisin1971 - Jul 19, 2012 at 5:54 AM

    Brough, why bother commenting on this one of Freidman’s ponts when the Parise stuff would interest more people i.e. get more hits? They obviously won’t read the whole thing without being guided there.

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