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Bodog’s oddsmakers aren’t worried about Alex Ovechkin’s tough 2010-11

Oct 3, 2011, 9:54 PM EDT

Alex Ovechkin AP

To most casual hockey fans, Alex Ovechkin fell off the map last season. It’s tough to fault that mindset when you consider the fact that Ovi makes about $10 million per year – not counting endorsements involving chocolate and magic powers.

The thing is, sometimes the bounces just don’t go your way. That’s exactly what happened to Ovechkin in 2010-11; the Washington Capitals superstar connected on a career-low 8.7 percent of his shots (the only time he’s ever been under double digits). To give you an idea of how big of a drop that is, Ovechkin took an almost identical amount of shots the last two seasons: 368 in 09-10 and 367 in 10-11, yet he scored 50 goals (13.8 percent) in 09-10 and 32 last season.

It’s fair to assume that at least some of that wasn’t related to luck – maybe Ovechkin was a little worn down, perhaps the Capitals’ decelerated system handcuffed him a bit – but the smart money is on a bounce-back season. In fact, big gambling Web site Bodog wasn’t fooled by Ovi’s off year; they gave him the best odds to win the Hart Trophy next season.

Here are their top six choices (with a tie for fifth):

Ovechkin 4/1 odds
Steven Stamkos 11/2
Sidney Crosby 13/2
Daniel Sedin 12/1
Henrik Sedin 14/1
Pavel Datsyuk 14/1

Interestingly, the Anze Kopitar bandwagon keeps getting more crowded, as the Los Angeles Kings’ previously underrated star was the next highest choice with 25/1 odds. It’s surprising – but delightful – to see the Kings’ marquee talent (not named Drew Doughty) get so much attention after sliding under the radar for quite some time. Maybe that has something to do with LA’s proximity to Las Vegas, but it’s still pleasant to see him get his due.

Here are the top three expected finalists for the Vezina Trophy:

Ryan Miller 5/1
Tim Thomas 7/1
Roberto Luongo 15/2

Looking down the list, Pekka Rinne (10/1) and Tomas Vokoun (18/1) are interesting dark horse choices, with Jonas Hiller (25/1) being an intriguing sleeper as well.

Moving on, here are their guesses for the Norris Trophy:

Shea Weber 4/1
Zdeno Chara 9/2
Nicklas Lidstrom 13/2

Interestingly enough, the Norris process is the only one with the same three anticipated finalists as there were last season. It’s honestly a bit surprising – but likewise delightful – to see Weber get the appreciation he deserves. As far as other awards, Bodog pegs Philadelphia Flyers center Brayden Schenn over 2011 top pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for the Calder Trophy and Stamkos tops Ovechkin for the Maurice Richard Trophy.

If you are a gambling fan, Vokoun at (18/1) sure seems appealing. Michal Neuvirth is likely to steal his fair share of starts, but that setup didn’t really hurt Tim Thomas in 2010-11. (Of course, Thomas put together a historic year, but don’t count out Vokoun for big numbers playing behind the first truly dominant team of his impressive career.)

There are plenty of ways to predict how the 2011-12 season will pan out, but looking at gambling odds can be an interesting way to gauge public opinion. So far, the oddsmakers seem like they know their stuff – for the most part, anyway. What do you think about those choices, though?

  1. 1943mrmojorisin1971 - Oct 4, 2011 at 12:47 AM

    Ovie is just way too good to not make a few adjustments and get his game back on track this year

  2. trbowman - Oct 4, 2011 at 4:31 AM

    Weber should have won the Norris last year

  3. bigbear42 - Oct 4, 2011 at 10:56 AM

    Ovis game has been regressing for the past 2-3 years. He has become predictable and his physical play has become reckless. He will probably miss 10 games due to suspension alone because hes a repeat offender. Sometimes I get the feeling Boudreau is trying to force him to play a style of game that reigns him in too much, but he is finally going to take him off the point on the power play so that should help his point totals.

    • icelovinbrotha215 - Oct 4, 2011 at 11:53 AM

      I think he may tone down his ‘reckless’ play because the tightening of Shanahan and the suspensions. But you do pose a good point.

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