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Next summer shaping up to be a nightmare for Predators

Aug 5, 2011, 10:10 PM EDT

Pekka Rinne AP

This has certainly been an interesting offseason for the Nashville Predators. They acquired the much-maligned Brett Lebda, they’ve wondered about Francis Bouillon’s concussion and availability for next season, and even unveiled new jerseys. But head and shoulders above all other stories have been the Shea Weber contract negotiations and subsequent salary arbitration hearings.

The negotiations came to a head when the independent arbitrator gave Weber the highest award in the history of NHL arbitration with a one-year deal worth $7.5 million. The deal is especially constricting for a team that already operates on a budget, but the money isn’t even the worst part of the deal for the Predators. Since Weber is set to become a restricted free agent again next season, each of the Predators “Big 3” are set to be free agents on July 1, 2012. This offseason is nothing compared to the impending fiasco for GM David Poile and the Predators next season.

Stu Hackel from Sports Illustrated knows these three impending contracts could change the way the Predators do business:

“It has not been Poile’s modus operandi with the Predators to make splashy big-name acquisitions, and the team’s fiscal restraints have played a deciding role in that. Now that they know what their salary structure looks like and can project what it might look like after re-upping Suter and Rinne, we’ll see whether it triggers a new era in Nashville or leaves them as a lower-spending team that may be forced to part with high-priced talent.”

Next season, Pekka Rinne is set to make $3.4 million in the last year of his contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Likewise, defenseman Ryan Suter will make $3.5 in the last year of his deal before unrestricted free agency. Mix in Weber’s $7.5 million and the Predators have $14.4 million dedicated to three players next season. The Predators have never officially announced their payroll budget, but last season the Predators spent $50.9 against the salary cap. Barring any unforeseen changes to management or their organization strategy, it’s safe to assume they’ll be in the same ballpark for the immediate future.

The problem is that the $14.4 million for all three players is the good news. The bad news is that Weber is likely to get a similar type salary if he performs at the same level he’s established over the last two years. Pekka Rinne has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL over the last three seasons and was finally rewarded with a Vezina nomination this year. His .930 save percentage and 2.12 goals against average put him among the league’s elite—and people are finally taking notice. With guys like Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Ward, Ryan Miller, and Niklas Backstrom all making over $6 million per season and Ilya Bryzgalov signing a 9-year deal worth $5.6 million per season, Rinne is in line for a sizeable raise.

In the same way, Ryan Suter has been outplaying his current 4-year, $14 million contract. Looking at his numbers, play on the ice, leadership, and importance to the Predators, Suter is also in for a big raise. At the 2010 Olympics, he showed the world that he was an elite player with or without his better-known defense partner. In fact, many at the games said that Suter was the best defenseman on the ice for Team USA. When he hits the unrestricted market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a contract in the Andrei Markov/James Wisniewski/Duncan Keith neighborhood. For those of you keeping track at home, that means he’ll be looking at an estimated cap hit around $5.5 million.

GM David Poile spoke about Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne:

“They’re both unrestricted this year. All of our focus has been on Shea’s situation to this point. I would much prefer to get into training camp to get everybody there, to see how good our team is, to sit down with Shea again, Sutes and Pekka at the appropriate time and see how everybody thinks.”

Poile and the Predators will have their work cut out for them over the next 11 months. Not only do they have to worry about the three big name free agents in Weber, Rinne, and Suter, but they have other pieces that are also up for new contracts at season’s end. If the team decides to move away from Pekka Rinne, they’ll have to address pending restricted free agent Andres Lindback. The next blueliner set to take the next step in the NHL from Nashville’s defenseman factory is Jonathan Blum—who is a restricted free agent next season. Up front, they’ll have to deal with restricted free agents Sergei Kostitsyn, Blake Geoffrion, Cal O’Reilly, and Colin Wilson.

And we thought this offseason was interesting.

  1. hooockey - Aug 6, 2011 at 10:41 AM

    Suter will get quite a bit more than $5.5 mil in free agency, unless of course, he signs one of those lifetime contracts with $1 mil salaries at age 39 and 40 to reduce the cap hit.

    Keith is a bargain, Markov a huge injury risk, and Wisniewski hit the jackpot and is massively overpaid. You can’t really compare their contracts to what Suter will get.

    Suter will probably get what Weber gets: $7.5 million. Him and Weber are close to equals.

    Sorry, Preds fans. Too bad you’re not a bigger market and can’t spend to the cap, or you could easily retain all 3 stars. But the right trade of 1 of your 2 meal-ticket defensemen should get some very promising youngsters.

    Gotta trade Suter now, or Weber in 1 year; this team can’t afford to lose a top asset for nothing.

  2. capsrockva - Aug 6, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    I’m just glad we got Joel Ward from you

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