Apr 22, 2011, 2:24 AM EDT
The Chicago Blackhawks raised a lot of eyebrows (and the blood pressure of many people in Vancouver) with their 5-0 win against the Canucks in Game 5. People aren’t buzzing about Chicago’s two wins as much as they are shocked by just how dominant those two games have been. It’s the kind of turnaround/collapse that underscores how fragile athletes can be.
So the question is: can they repeat the 2009-10 Philadelphia Flyers’ magic act against the Boston Bruins by coming back from a 3-0 series deficit? Let’s take a look.
History stands against Chicago.
Realists would point out that the odds are still against the Blackhawks considering the fact that only three teams in NHL history have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. (Whowins.com points out that teams up 3-0 are 159-3 all-time, although I think that the Detroit Red Wings became No. 160 last night.) On the other hand, optimists will point out that the Blackhawks merely need to match what the 2009-10 Philadelphia Flyers did against the Boston Bruins in last year’s playoffs.
Ultimately, the Blackhawks can look at the 3-2 odds alone, though. Teams up 3-2 are 250-64 all-time, which means Chicago has improved their odds of winning this series from about two percent to about 20.
If you’re getting bored with obtuse numbers, I have a more fun exercise for you: let’s compare this Chicago-Vancouver series to that 2010 Philadelphia-Boston series.
How the two series are similar
- In both series, the Blackhawks and Flyers fell behind 3-0 despite some close games. The Canucks earned two one-goal wins and one two-goal victory; the Bruins dominated Game 3 4-1 but needed an overtime win and another one-goal win to take a deceptively large lead. This is my long way of saying that the series were much closer than their 3-0 margins.
- A major injury might be the turning point. In the Flyers-Bruins series, Brian Boucher‘s injury allowed Michael Leighton to step back in and save the day. Brent Seabrook missed the last two games because of the Raffi Torres hit, but that injury might be part of the reason Duncan Keith is on fire.
- Survival instincts: Both the Flyers and Blackhawks were fighting up until the last day of their respective regular seasons, making them quite familiar with must-win situations. (Sure, Chicago lost their last game, but they won plenty during the stretch drive.)
How they are different.
- History: The Bruins and Flyers didn’t really have short-term baggage in their series, while the Canucks and Blackhawks have met three years in a row. Of course, this point actually works in Chicago’s favor, though.
- Disparity: Despite their recent showings, the 2011 Canucks are (in my opinion) a much better team than the 2010 Bruins. They’re shaken up at the moment, but I still think that Vancouver is the team to beat.
- Depth: The Flyers had a deep pool of offensive options while the Blackhawks must rely on a small handful of scorers. If Chicago’s going to keep it going, they’ll probably need their best players to keep carrying them along the way.
- Canucks under pressure: Any team with a 3-0 lead is under the gun, but Vancouver is the Presidents’ Trophy team trying to win its first-ever Cup in its 40th season. They’re trying to shake a considerable monkey off their backs. Yup, that’s a ton of pressure, something that plays into Chicago’s hands.
So what’s the takeaway from all this? The Blackhawks certainly have a chance to do this. History is against them, but psychology might be on their side considering all of Vancouver’s baggage. If they win Game 6, then the Canucks would have the weight of the world on their shoulders in Game 7.
Does that mean that it’ll happen? I’d still bet against it, but who even saw these last two games coming?
Sep 22, 2014, 12:11 PM EDT
But Peter Karmanos wants to retain control of the team.
Sep 22, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
“It’s nice having a little more freedom, in that regard, especially for the creativity that’s on our team,” says Beau Bennett.
Sep 22, 2014, 10:45 AM EDT
“I think what we’re going to do as a team will be right up his alley.”
Sep 22, 2014, 10:02 AM EDT
He’ll get tougher assignments with Kimmo Timonen sidelined indefinitely.
Sep 22, 2014, 8:58 AM EDT
Colorado is counting on the duo to be very effective this season.
Sep 22, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Monday’s collection of links.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:05 PM EDT
Head coach Todd McLellan thinks he can play, at least.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT
“But sometimes you have to lose what you have to realize what you had.”
Sep 21, 2014, 9:40 PM EDT
Players nursing bumps and bruises as camps wrap.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
“In a perfect world, it would be three.”
Sep 21, 2014, 7:31 PM EDT
“He’s thinking usually two or three plays ahead.”
Sep 21, 2014, 6:09 PM EDT
“God, defense was just so much fun though.”
Sep 21, 2014, 4:49 PM EDT
The team’s still trying to determine if surgery is necessary.
Sep 21, 2014, 3:48 PM EDT
He won’t play in either of Ottawa’s Monday exhibitions games.
Sep 21, 2014, 3:02 PM EDT
Seasoning in the AHL should serve the 20-year-old well.
Sep 21, 2014, 1:31 PM EDT
Agent confirms talking to several KHL teams.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
With Giroux out, Craig Berube juggles lines.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:31 AM EDT
Not at Oilers camp for the first time in his career.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Columbus looking at options with Johansen not at camp.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:36 PM EDT
The restricted free agent seems to be at an impasse with Columbus.
- Injuries piling up as preseason schedule begins 11
- Report: Fedorov denies contract offer was made to Johansen 7
- Report: Johansen has gotten no shortage of KHL offers 37
- Update: Drouin out with upper body injury, not expected to miss preseason 1
- Report: NHL officials to participate in preseason without new CBA 1
- Evander Kane: I know I can score 50 goals 16
- ‘C’-less Thornton comes out swing against Wilson’s ‘tomorrow team’ talk 19
- Joe Sakic’s now general manager in name too 6
- Update: Giroux out two weeks with lower-body injury 26
- Update: Crosby on ice with Penguins teammates Friday, leaves early 5
- Heeeeeere’s Johnny! Davidson shreds Johansen’s agent for ‘baffling, nonsensical’ contract demands (65)
- Jackets reveal Johansen offers — including an eight year, $46M deal (55)
- Will the NHL publicize divers? (48)
- No icing on the PK? The USHL will see how that looks (43)
- Just how damaging are heated negotiations between Jackets, RFA Johansen? (38)